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Wednesday, June 28, 2006

Wake up Boston! YOU ARE HERE.



I think the Boston market is about to have a repeat of what happened in 1987-92. This graph compares the end of the 82 recession with the end of the 01 recession, and as can be seen both times had incredible house price appreciation. Interest rates from 01-04 were dropping just as they were from 82-85. I see no reason to think that prices will not decline now, just as they did in 1987.

I am going to start running this exercise for other cities (MSA's), in the near future. I will likely do Boston, Atlanta, Chicago, Denver, Miami, Phoenix, Riverside, and Washington DC. Any other cities anyone would like to see? I have the data for all 361 MSA's

3 Comments:

Anonymous said...

I'd like to see data for Phoenix.
Thanks.
Ben

4:04 PM  
Anonymous said...

San Francisco please, cheers, Mike

6:50 PM  
Suresh said...

Many thanks for your work, Mr. Potts!

I'd be interested in a similar chart for Washington, DC.

Given your charts of Phoenix and Boston, why do you think the Phoenix real estate market fell off immediately after 1981, whereas the Boston market went up for several years before falling off? Of course, I'm wondering which factors present in either the Phoenix or Boston markets after 1981 might be present in the current DC market.

With best regards.

9:22 AM  

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