Housing price changes from 2005 Q3 to the present

I have been unable to get the Case Shiller index at the MSA level but am still working on it. This is too bad since it is likely the most reliable. These numbers are not inflation adjusted:

For sale: 833 currently leased Condominium units, located within the Hudson Capital Developments in Orlando, Miami, Jacksonville and Schaumburg, IL

Assured Leaseback Program, we guarantee your rental income for the two first years of ownership, converting these Condominium units to a one-of-a-kind offering in the Continental USA. In addition, the developer covers the Home Owners Association fees for 2 years.

Commercial Mortgage Securitied Market

The commercial debt market has been following housing in many ways. nreionline.com reports on a recent Fitch (rating agency) report:

With 10 business days to go, CMBS issuance is on track to top $200 billion in 2006, a new record. But Fitch Ratings warns a worrisome amount of the loans that were securitized this year are concentrated in volatile property types or are interest-only obligations.

“As issuance volume grows, recent vintages have become more volatile,” Fitch Ratings Senior Director Patty Bach said during a conference call with reporters and analysts on Dec. 13. Bach pointed to a surge in hotel lending, which is regarded as riskier than property types that get their cash flow through long-term leases, not overnight visits.

Hotel loans accounted for 16.3% of all commercial mortgage-backed securities issued in 2006, according to Bach, and for the first time surpassed the multi-family assets in CMBS. The share of hotel properties has been on the rise in CMBS since hitting a post 9/11 low of 2.3%.

Interest-only loans are another red flag, because borrowers who use such instruments may be exceedingly vulnerable to economic downturns. Bach says that Fitch has seen the percentage of interest-only loans in multi-borrower deals rise in 2006 and predicts that the number will rise in 2007, too, although the company does not have precise data on the issue.

Fitch contends riskier lending practices are the result of rising competition among loan originators seeking product and profitability. “Fitch also expects Vintage 2007 to be more volatile than earlier vintages,” Bach says.

PMI Mortgage Insurance Co. Heralds Congressional Passage of Tax Deductibility of Mortgage Insurance Premiums

WALNUT CREEK, Calif., Dec. 11 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- New congressional
legislation allowing homebuyers to deduct the cost of mortgage insurance
premiums on their federal income tax returns is a welcome development for
homebuyers, Steve Smith, Chief Executive Officer of The PMI Group, Inc. and
PMI
Mortgage Insurance Co., commented today.
"We congratulate Congress
for
helping low- and moderate-income Americans overcome barriers to
homeownership,"
Smith said. "By making mortgage insurance tax deductible,
Congress is addressing
the key issue of housing affordability for many
homebuyers."

This should help housing over the next couple of years as it is priced in.

Rent Increases May Ease As Condo Market Softens

From the WSJ:

Look out, apartment landlords: Many rental buildings that were converted to
condos are returning to the rental market amid slowing condo sales -- and that
could put a dent in the healthy rent increases many landlords are hoping for
next year. Apartment inventories have crept up since this summer for the
first time in two years due to the failure of condo conversions in a slowing
housing market, says Reis Inc., a real-estate research firm in New York.
While the increase is still small, it does signify a change in direction.
Nationwide, the number of apartments increased by 8,900 units in the third
quarter, out of a total of 9.1 million, by Reis's measure, which includes
complexes of over 40 units.

Construction Posts Big Decline

The slowing of the housing market is a key reason why construction outlays fell 1 percent in October to an annualized pace of $1.178 trillion. There was a 1.9-percent drop in spending on residential projects during the month, following a 1.4-percent decrease in September. Total construction expenditures in September had been revised to -0.8 percent from -0.3 percent. The overall decline in construction spending in October, which was worse than market observers had anticipated, proved to be the steepest drop since September 2001.

Dead projects running rampent in Miami

I was in Miami this week, and sights such as the image above are common (click to view full). I took the picture on the second to last day of November, so unless they built the entire project from scratch yesterday I don't think they made the November 2006 goal.